Rivian Q2 earnings preview: All eyes on production forecast amid supply chain issues

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Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) is expected to announce its second-quarter results on Thursday, August 11, after the market closes.

The consensus EPS estimate is -$1.63 and the consensus revenue estimate is $337.98M.

After riding high following his public debut, Rivian (SHORE) is under increasing pressure. Although it reached $172 in November 2021, it dipped to $20 in May. Shares have since risen above $35, following its highly anticipated First Quarter Earnings Report and Q2 production report.

The electric vehicle maker said at the end of the first quarter it had more than 90,000 net R1 orders and an initial EDV order from Amazon for 100,000 vehicles.

In July, Amazon began operating the first Rivian vans in several US cities, with plans to roll out thousands of custom electric delivery vehicles to more than 100 cities by the end of this year. The e-commerce giant plans to have 100,000 Rivian vans on the road delivering packages by 2030.

Rivian’s Q2 production report released in July showed 4,401 vehicles manufactured at its Normal, Illinois plant and 4,467 vehicles delivered during the quarter. Importantly, the automaker said it was on track to meet previously released annual production guidance for 25K vehicles, even as supply chain grunts continue to hurt the EV sector.

Canaccord Genuity then launched coverage with a buy rating, suggesting the electric vehicle maker has a solid foundation to become a leading brand in the struggling industry. Wedbush Securities also sees the automaker moving past its production issues.

Investors will be looking to see if Rivian reiterates its 2022 production guidance even as it attempts to cut costs. Bloomberg reported that the company is planning “potential layoffs and plans to suspend some programs,” according to a memo from CEO RJ Scaringe to staff. Rivian will need to hit a quarterly pace of around 9,000 units in the second half to meet its guidance. , according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

A more optimistic analysis from SA contributors suggests that Rivian is one of the few electric vehicle companies with the critical mass of capital and technology needed to succeed in a tough industry.

Over the past 3 months, analysts have made two upward revisions and seven downward revisions to EPS estimates. Earnings estimates saw four upward and six downward revisions.

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